By Douglas S. Winnail, Ph. D., M.P.H.
From The World Ahead, Sept-Oct, 1996
Perhaps you have been too busy to notice, but the concern about our global
food supply is real! Major news magazines are reporting that after a quiet
few decades, talk of a world food crisis is again in the air. Government
leaders, economists and scientists are seriously pondering such sobering
questions as: Does the world face a global shortage? and Will the world starve?
There is a growing sense of urgency.
In November 1996 the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization will
convene a World Food Security Summit in Rome. The conference was called due
to growing concerns that shrinking world food reserves, rising prices and
the declining production of food grains could be the precursors of an imminent
food security crisis. Dr. Jacques Diouf, the FAO Director-General, has stated,
"The very survival of humanity depends on world food security
".
Just what does the future hold for humanity? Will there be enough food to
go around? What does a look at all the evidence indicate? And
how will this issue affect your life in the months and years
ahead?
HOW LONG BEFORE THE CUPBOARD IS BARE?
Numerous sources document that global supplies of rice, wheat, corn and other
key commodities have dwindled to their lowest levels in years
. The U.N. recently warned that food stocks stand far below the
minimum needed to provide for world food security. The world's grain harvest
has not increased in any of the last five years, and since 1992 world grain
consumption has exceeded production... this year--for the first time since
World War II--there are basically no surplus stocks in government-owned
reserves. The tight supplies have led to steep price increases for
wheat, rice, and corn. Grain stockpiles have fallen particularly fast in
the U.S. and the European Union as a result of agricultural reforms that
have focused on reducing overproduction and selling off surpluses--primarily
to China--to gain revenue from exports. Bad weather and a string of poor
harvests in grain producing areas of the world have also contributed to the
dwindling reserves.
A CRISIS AHEAD?
Opinions are sharply divided over what the future may hold. The world's food
economy may be shifting from a long-accustomed period of overall abundance
to one of scarcity and that food scarcity will be the defining issue
in the future. The lack of growth of the world grain harvest since
1990 coupled with the continuing growth in world population and the increased
likelihood of crop-damaging heat waves in the years ahead at least carries
the potential of severe food shortages . U.N. sources suggest
that with grain stocks dangerously low serious food shortages could result
if there are major crop failures in 1996.
These pessimistic predictions for the future are countered by voices claiming
to be more rational and optimistic. They argue that present shortages in
food reserves are merely a temporary blip on the food charts and that relief
will probably come with this year's harvest. The optimists believe returning
idled land to production will assure enough food for growing populations.
They also have faith that biotechnology will develop new varieties of plants,
boosting production. Julian Simon, a business professor at the University
of Maryland, downplays doomsayers and the fears of famine. In Simon's opinion,
"For some 25 years they have been wrong, and they have not changed their
minds. Why should they be believed?" From Simon's perspective the record
of history is progress, and life has never been better.
Who should you believe? Is there really an impending global food crisis?
Has anything changed in 25 years since the doomsayers began sounding the
alarm? Are there reasons for concern?
POPULATION PRESSURES INCREASE
A prime concern is that, in spite of falling grain reserves and the leveling
off of production, worldwide grain consumption continues to grow. This increase
is driven by two factors: growing populations and improving lifestyles. Both
are placing increasing strains on world food supplies.
Since 1950 world population has more than doubled--surging from about 2.5
billion to more than 5.8 billion people. Globally, it continues to grow (by
any historical benchmark) with extraordinary speed . As populations
grow, demand is certainly rising fast. Every year there are 90 million more
mouths to feed in developing countries. As consumers become richer, they
develop a taste for meat, and it takes a lot of grain to fatten livestock.
The basic question is: Will we be able to feed 90 million more people each
year when grain production seems to be leveling off ? Keep
in mind this is in addition to the biblical scale of hunger
that exists already. About 800 million people in poorer countries are chronically
undernourished right now !
SHIFTS TO DEPENDENCY
Another worrisome trend is described by Stanford University biologists Paul
and Anne Ehrlich. Fifty years ago "most regions of the world were
self-sufficient in food production, and many exported grain.
Since then, for various reasons, the pattern has dramatically changed; more
than 100 nations now import grain from the United States, Canada, Western
Europe, Australia and a few other surplus producers.... Nearly all developing
nations have become dependent on grain imports to keep their
populations adequately fed.... This growing worldwide dependency
on a mere handful of suppliers for basic foodstuffs could itself spell trouble
for global food security ".
This shift to dependency has ominous implications for the future. As nations
industrialize, people move from rural farms and villages to the cities, leaving
fewer laborers to produce food. Agricultural skills are lost and more people
become dependent on distant food supplies. Prime agricultural land is permanently
lost to urban development, reducing the acreage available to grow food. In
just two years, China turned from exporting grain to Japan (8 million tons)
into the world's second largest grain importer (16 million tons). Some are
concerned that, if this ominous trend is not reversed, China would need to
import virtually all the grain available for export in the
world.
TECHNOLOGY--A PLAYED-OUT SAVIOR?
Optimists are quick to point out that a major reason why pessimists were
wrong in their predictions for widespread famine in the 1960s was their failure
to anticipate the arrival of the "green revolution" with its new strains
of high-yield seeds, chemical pesticides, increased use of fertilizers and
improved irrigation. These four factors kept grain production ahead of the
doubling population. The predicted worldwide famine did not materialize.
But were the doomsayers wrong--or only premature?
Paul and Anne Ehrlich, among others, suggest that yield increases from
green-revolution technology may now be playing out. Worldwide
fertilizer use, which increased over 1,000 percent during the green revolution
years, has been declining for several years in a row. Insects are developing
resistance to pesticides. Underground aquifers used for irrigation are being
depleted.
While plant scientists talk of continuing to boost grain production through
biotechnology, the Ehrlichs--both biologists--suggest, no promising new
technology appears on the horizon that could carry the process (green-revolution
technology) further on a global scale. From their perspective, a big jump
in agricultural productivity resulting from advances in biotechnology is
not foreseen .
With the green revolution apparently running out of gas, numerous observers
are warning that the globe is on the brink of a new era of food scarcity.
In fact, the growing dependency on bioengineered crop varieties may contain
the seeds of our own destruction.
FRAGILE FOOD CHAIN
Today our food supply depends upon a few hybridized varieties of a very limited
selection of plant species--primarily wheat, corn, rice and potatoes. These
plants are genetically bred for uniform qualities of color, size and texture
while other traits are eliminated. What many do not realize is that reducing
the genetic base in this way may boost efficiency, but it also increases
the risk that one type of pest will infest a whole harvest. When
entire fields or regions are planted with just one hybrid variety of a single
crop--such as Russet Burbank potatoes that McDonald's prefers to make French
fries with--you have a potential disaster waiting to happen. It has happened
before!
The Great Irish Potato Famine in the late 1840s developed during a series
of wet growing seasons when a fungus from Europe spread through many fields
planted with a single variety of potato. The collapse of this
crop was catastrophic. Over a million Irish died and millions more emigrated
to escape the horrible conditions spawned by a "sinister trend toward
monoculture," oppressive political decisions and unusual weather. Now a new
strain of this same fungus has reappeared in the 1990s and is
sweeping through potato fields in much of Europe and North America and parts
of South America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The aggressive new strain
is resistant to commonly used pesticides and has been called one of the worst
crises to ever strike the U.S. potato industry. It has the potential of causing
serious problems to our food supply if wet weather develops.
However, the potato blight is only one part of a very disturbing picture.
Karnal bunt fungus has turned the 1996 durum wheat harvest in the southwestern
U.S. into a nightmare. A soybean fungus, for which there is no known treatment,
has appeared in Hawaii. Reports are also surfacing that genetically engineered
plants designed to withstand herbicides can pass those new genes to nearby
weeds. The European Union recently refused to approve the sale of a genetically
engineered variety of corn, fearing the genes for antibiotic resistance might
be passed on to cattle and humans.
The impressive methods of modern grain production rest on a very
narrow and fragile genetic base. Our future harvest could be likened
to delicately balanced houses of cards--highly susceptible to sudden changes.
However, there is one more unpredictable factor that is capable of dramatically
affecting the size and quality of global food
supplies.
WEATHER--A WILD CARD!
What is seldom stated is that optimistic forecasts for increasing grain
production are based on critical long-term assumptions that include normal
(average) weather. Yet in recent years this has definitely not
been the case. Severe and unusual weather conditions have suddenly appeared
around the globe. Some of the worst droughts, heat waves, heavy rains and
flooding on record have reduced harvests in China, Spain, Australia, South
Africa, the United States and Canada--major grain growing regions of the
world--by 40 to 50 percent. As a result grain prices are the highest on record.
Worldwatch Institute's president, Lester Brown, writes, "No other economic
indicator is more politically sensitive that rising food prices.... Food
prices spiraling out of control could trigger not only economic instability
but widespread political upheavals"-- even wars.
The chaotic weather conditions we have been experiencing appear to be related
to global warming caused by the release of pollutants into the earth's
atmosphere. A recent article entitled "Heading for Apocalypse?" suggests
the effects of global warming--and its side effects of increasingly severe
droughts, floods and storms--could be catastrophic, especially for agriculture.
The unpredictable shifts in temperature and rainfall will pose an
increased risk of hunger and famine for many of the world's
poor.
With world food stores dwindling, grain production leveling off and a string
of bad harvests around the world, the next couple of years will be critical.
Agricultural experts suggest it will take two bumper crops in a
row to bring supplies back up to normal. However, poor harvests
in 1996 and 1997 could create severe food shortages and push millions over
the edge.
Is it possible we are only one or two harvests away from a global disaster?
Is there any significance to what is happening today? Where
is it all leading? What does the future hold?
The clear implication is that things will get worse before they get better.
Wars, famine and disease will affect the lives of billions of people! Although
famines have occurred at various times in the past, the new famines will
happen during a time of unprecedented global stress--times that have
no parallel in recorded history--at a time when the total destruction of
humanity would be possible!
Is it merely a coincidence that we are seeing a growing menace of famine
on a global scale at a time when the world is facing the threat of a resurgence
of new and old epidemic diseases, and the demands of an exploding population?
These are pushing the world's resources to its limits! The world has
never before faced such an ominous series of potential global
crises at the same time!
However, droughts and shrinking grain stores are not the only threats to
world food supplies. According to the U.N.'s studies, all 17 major fishing
areas in the world have either reached or exceeded their natural limits.
In fact, nine of these areas are in serious decline.
The realization that we may be facing a shortage of food from both oceanic
and land-based sources is a troubling one . It's troubling because
seafood--the world's leading source of animal protein--could be depleted
quite rapidly. In the early 1970s, the Peruvian anchovy catch--the largest
in the world--collapsed from 12 million tons to 2 million in just three
years from overfishing. If this happens on a global scale, we will
be in deep trouble. This precarious situation is also without historical
precedent!
